The supplied voltage does not exceed the combined Vf of the diode plus LED but still there is some current going through the (simulated 1W 3.3Vf) LED...???
Also the voltage drop on the LED doesn't match the "Voltage" setting for the LED, so that value is not used for Vf or Vd.. WTF?
Part of my problem was my misconception about how LEDs/diodes work.
As long as they are "forward biased" with as little as 0.2 - 0.7 V (or any voltage at all?) they start do conduct a very small current, and that I vs V characteristic/"graph" spikes very sharply at a certain point so that it acts almost like a "short circuit" path above higher "forward bias" voltages.
The region were they act as an "open circuit" is much smaller (non-existant?) than my original view implied.
Here's an xcellent circuit which visualizes the I V relationship of LEDs:
http://everycircuit.com/circuit/6430643947307008
I am still trying to figure out if the Vd of each component in my circuit is correct but I have also learned that Vd of a diode/LED is linked to the passing current so it is not quite as simple as "Vd = Vf" (which might be true in certain ideal circuits?).